WMD? Oil?

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Sinclair, I. (2023, March 8). Why do the US and Britain still claim the invasion of Iraq was to spread democracy? Morning Star. https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/f/why-do-us-britain-claim-iraq-invasion-was-to-spread-democracy
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Why do the US and Britain still claim the invasion of Iraq was to spread democracy?

The hostility towards elections and democracy by the US-British military administration that brutally overran the nation in 2003 was well documented at the time — as was the mass movement for free elections, writes

A little late to the party, I recently watched Once Upon A Time In Iraq, the BBC’s 2020 five-part documentary series about the US-British invasion and occupation of the Middle East nation.

During the episode about the capture of Iraqi president Saddam Hussein in December 2003, the narrator noted: “Though Iraq was still governed by the [US-led] coalition, the intention was to hold democratic elections as soon as possible.”

This fits with the common understanding of the Iraq War amongst the media, academic and political elites. For example, speaking on the BBC News at 10 in 2005, correspondent Paul Wood stated: “The coalition came to Iraq in the first place to bring democracy and human rights.”

Likewise, writing in the Guardian in 2013, the esteemed University of Cambridge Professor David Runciman claimed: “The wars fought after 2001 in Afghanistan and Iraq were designed… to spread the merits of democracy.”

No doubt similarly benign framing of the West’s intentions and actions will be repeated as we approach the 20th anniversary of the invasion on March 20 2003.

But is it true? As always it is essential to compare the narrative pumped out by corporate and state-affiliated media with the historical record.

We know that soon after US-led forces had taken control of the country, Iraqis began holding local elections. However, in June 2003, the Washington Post reported “US military commanders have ordered a halt to local elections and self-rule in provincial cities and towns across Iraq, choosing instead to install their own handpicked mayors and administrators, many of whom are former Iraqi military leaders.”

The report goes on to quote Paul Bremer, the chief US administrator in Iraq: “I’m not opposed to [self-rule], but I want to do it in a way that takes care of our concerns… in a postwar situation like this, if you start holding elections… it’s often the best-organised who win, and the best-organised right now are the former Baathists and to some extent the Islamists.”

On the national level, Professor Toby Dodge, who advised US General David Petraeus in Iraq, notes one of the first decisions Bremer made, after he arrived in Baghdad in May 2003, “was to delay moves towards delegating responsibility to a leadership council” composed of exiled politicians.

Writing in his 2005 book, Iraq’s Future, the establishment-friendly British academic goes on to explain “this careful, incremental but largely undemocratic approach was set aside with the arrival of UN special representative for Iraq, Vieira de Mello” who “persuaded Bremer that a governing body of Iraqis should be set up to act as a repository of Iraqi sovereignty.”

Accordingly, on July 13 2003 the Iraqi Governing Council (IGC) was set up. Dodge notes the membership “was chosen by Bremer after extended negotiations between the CPA [the US Coalition Provisional Authority], Vieira de Mello and the seven dominant, formerly exiled parties.” The IGC would “establish a constitutional process,” Bremer said at the time.

However, the Americans had a serious problem on their hands. In late June 2003 the most senior Shia religious leader in Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, issued a fatwa (a religious edict) condemning the US plans as “fundamentally unacceptable.”

“The occupation officials do not enjoy the authority to appoint the members of a council that would write the constitution,” he said. Instead, he called for a general election “so that every eligible Iraqi can choose someone to represent him at the constitutional convention that will write the constitution” which would then be put to a public referendum.

“With no way around the fatwa, and with escalating American casualties creating pressure on President Bush,” the Washington Post reported in November 2003 that Bremer “dumped his original plan in favour of an arrangement that would bestow sovereignty on a provisional government before a constitution is drafted.”

This new plan, known as the November 15 Agreement, was based on a complex process of caucuses. A 2005 briefing from peace group Justice Not Vengeance (JNV) explained just how anti-democratic the proposal was: “US-appointed politicians would select a committee in each province which would select a group of politically acceptable local worthies, which in turn would select a representative… to go forward to the national assembly” which would “then be allowed to elect a provisional government.”

In response, Sistani made another public intervention, repeating his demand that direct elections — not a system of regional caucuses — should select a transitional government. After the US refused to concede, the Shia clerical establishment escalated their pro-democracy campaign, organising street demonstrations in January 2004.

100,000 people protested in Baghdad and 30,000 in Basra, with news reports recording crowds chanting: “Yes, yes to elections, no, no to occupation” and banners with slogans such as “we refuse any constitution that is not elected by the Iraqi people.”

Under pressure, the US relented, agreeing in March 2004 to hold national elections in January 2005 to a Transitional National Assembly which was mandated to draft a new constitution.

The campaigning group Voices In The Wilderness UK summarised events in a 2004 briefing: “Since the invasion, the US has consistently stalled on one-person-one-vote elections” seeking instead to “put democracy on hold until it can be safely managed,” as Salim Lone, director of communications for the UN in Iraq until autumn 2003, wrote in April 2004.

Why? “An elected government that reflected Iraqi popular [opinion] would kick US troops out of the country and is unlikely to be sufficiently amenable to the interests of Western oil companies or take an ‘acceptable’ position on the Israel-Palestine conflict,” Voices In The Wilderness UK explained.

For example, a secret 2005 nationwide poll of Iraqis conducted by the UK Ministry of Defence found 82 per cent “strongly opposed” to the presence of the US-led coalition forces, with 45 per cent of respondents saying they believed attacks against British and American troops were justified.

It is worth pausing briefly to consider two aspects of the struggle for democracy in Iraq. First, the Sistani-led movement in Iraq was, as US dissident intellectual Noam Chomsky argued in 2005, “One of the major triumphs of non-violent resistance that I know of.”

And second, it was a senior Iraqi Shia cleric who championed democratic elections in the face of strong opposition from the US — the “heartland of democracy,” according to the Financial Times’s Martin Wolf.

It is also worth remembering, as activist group JNV noted in 2005, that president George W Bush’s ultimatum days before the invasion was simply that “Saddam Hussein and his sons must leave Iraq within 48 hours.” This was about “encouraging a last-minute coup more than the Iraqi leader’s departure from Baghdad,” the Financial Times reported at the time. In short, the US-British plan was not free elections via “regime change” but “regime stabilisation, leadership change,” JNV argued.

This resonates with the analysis of Middle East expert Jane Kinninmont. Addressing the argument the West invaded Iraq to spread democracy, in a 2013 Chatham House report she argued: “This is asserted despite the long history of Anglo-American great-power involvement in the Middle East, which has, for the most part, not involved an effort to democratise the region.”

In reality “the general trend has been to either support authoritarian rulers who were already in place or to participate in the active consolidation of authoritarian rule… as long as these rulers have been seen as supporting Western interests more than popularly elected governments would.”

This thesis is not short of shameful examples — from the West’s enduring support for the Gulf monarchies in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait, to the strong backing given to Ben Ali in Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt before both dictators were overthrown in 2011.

📕 “Imperial interfering”  

📕 “Oil’s corruptive capacity”  

Back to Iraq: though far from perfect, national elections have taken place since 2003. But while the US has been quick to take the credit, the evidence shows any democratic gains won in Iraq in the immediate years after the invasion were made despite, not because of, the US and their British lackey.

Indeed, an October 2003 Gallup poll of Baghdad residents makes instructive reading. Fully 1 per cent of respondents agreed with the BBC and Runciman that a desire to establish democracy was the main intention of the US invasion. In contrast, 43 per cent of respondents said the invasion’s principal objective was Iraq’s oil reserves.

Oil’s corruptive capacity

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Maps & Facts

Writing for The Intercept_ in early 2016, Jon Schwarz said that, “due to a peculiar correlation of religious history and anaerobic decomposition of plankton, almost all the Persian Gulf’s fossil fuels are located underneath Shiites.” The fields of Qatar and the UAE aside, this geological and confessional observation rings true, see map:

Expand map to view details, key & legend.

As the above map (especially when expanded), crafted by Dr Michael Izady, clearly reveals, much of Saudi Arabia’s oil wealth is located in a small sliver of its territory whose occupants are predominantly Shia. Schwarz points out that prominent Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr lived in Awamiyya, the heart of Saudi Arabia’s oil fields (just north-west of Sunni-ruled, Shia-majority Bahrain). Should this be of consequence? No, in a perfect world this confessional happenstance should be of no consequence but:

WMD or oil?

Learsy (2011, pp. 88–89).
Learsy, R. J. (2011). Oil and Finance: The Epic Corruption. iUniverse.

As Schwarz (2016) recalls, Winston Churchill once described Iran’s oil as “a prize from fairyland far beyond our brightest hopes.” In that same essay for The Intercept_ Schwarz adds that the UK was “busy stealing” the said natural resource.

📕  “Imperial interfering”  

📕  “Sectarian matters”  

📕  “Shadow wars”  

It is said that one of the Saudi royal family’s principal concerns is that one day Saudi Shiites will secede, with their oil, and ally with Iran who are just across the Gulf (Schwarz, 2016). This fear has only grown since the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq overturned Saddam Hussein’s minority Sunni regime, and empowered the pro-Iranian Shiite majority. Nimr himself said in 2009 that Saudi Shiites would call for secession if the Saudi government didn’t improve its treatment of them. The same tension explains why Saudi Arabia helped Bahrain, an oil-rich, majority-Shiite country ruled by a Sunni monarchy, crush its version of the Arab Spring in 2011.

AP
AP
Sunnis and Shiites praying together on Sunday in Beirut, Lebanon, in protest of the execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr. Hassan Ammar/AP.

Robber barons

Robber baron is a term first applied as social criticism by 19th century muckrakers and others to certain wealthy, powerful, and unethical 19th-century American businessmen. The term appeared in that use as early as the August 1870 issue of The Atlantic magazine.

The term combines the sense of criminal (“robber”) and illegitimate aristocracy (“baron”) in a republic and, it is said, derives from Raubritter (German: robber knights).

By the late 19th century, the term was typically applied to businessmen who used exploitative practices to amass their wealth. Those practices included unfettered consumption and destruction of natural resources, influencing high levels of government, wage slavery, squashing competition by acquiring their competitors to create monopolies and/or trusts that control the market, and schemes to sell stock at inflated prices to unsuspecting investors.

“Like the railroad barons of the first Gilded Age, most of today’s superrich made their money not by inventing flying cars or robots but by controlling commercial networks and information.”
Michael Lind, The Tablet

References

Axworthy, M. (2017, August 25). Islam’s great schism. New Statesman, 146(5381). https://www.newstatesman.com/world/middle-east/2017/08/sunni-vs-shia-roots-islam-s-civil-war

Harney, J. (2016, January 4). How Do Sunni and Shia Islam Differ?, Correction notice. The New York times. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/04/world/middleeast/q-and-a-how-do-sunni-and-shia-islam-differ.html

Hubbard, B. (2016, January 4). Saudis Cutting Ties to Iranians as Tension Rises, Article. New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/04/world/middleeast/iran-saudi-arabia-execution-sheikh-nimr.html

Learsy, R. J. (2011). Oil and Finance: The Epic Corruption. iUniverse.

Schwarz, J. (2016, January 6). One Map That Explains the Dangerous Saudi-Iranian Conflict. The Intercept_. https://theintercept.com/2016/01/06/one-map-that-explains-the-dangerous-saudi-iranian-conflict/

Oil prices to stabilise

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Ezz-al-Deen, M. (2006, January 16). Oil prices ‘will stabilise this year’. Gulf News. https://gulfnews.com/business/oil-prices-will-stabilise-this-year-1.221638


Current trends indicate demand and supply will increase, says expert

During the Gulf Research Centre’s third annual conference recently, Anas Alhajji, moderator of the Gulf Energy Program-me at the GRC, said he expects oil prices to stabilise in 2006.

Prices will only decline significantly, he said, if the US falls into recession as a result of a decline in government spending. “The soaring price in 2005 was due to the market fundamentals of limited supply and rising demand. Opec members ran out of marketable excess capacity, and non-Opec production was lower than expected, while global demand especially in the US, India and China continued to grow,” Dr. Alhajji said. Current trends estimate that both demand and supply will increase in 2006. However, oil prices will depend on the size of the additional production capacity, he added.

According to experts at the Dubai-based GRC, the Gulf is likely to experience a period of high growth in 2006, a modest decline in oil prices, significant political developments, rising tension, and a slow shift in focus towards Asia in the realm of international relations.

Emilie Rutledge, economist at the GRC, said that high oil prices and the increasing global demand for oil triggered a boom for the GCC economies. The region’s aggregate GDP rose by 5.3 per cent, stock markets grew by 79 per cent and market capitalisation touched $1.1 trillion, an increase of 110 per cent over 2004. The aggregate GCC trade surplus stood at $253 billion in 2005, and imports of good and services rose by 20 per cent, she said. “Regional governments are generally aiming to avoid over-dependence on oil through economic diversification strategies, labour nationalisation policies and the privatisation process,” she said.

Vital issues
GRC Chairman Abdul Aziz Sager highlighted important issues in 2005, including the continuing political reform process that has firmly implanted itself in the region, the effects of the unprecedented increase in oil prices on the GCC economies, as well as the numerous security challenges that confront the region. “Despite the economic and strategic importance it represents, the developments in the Gulf region during 2005 were not reassuring as far as the status of Gulf security is concerned,” Sager added.

The GCC defence budget amounted to $34 billion during 2005, a $4 billion increase over 2004. The budget growth could be related to higher revenues because of oil prices, said Mustafa Alani, Director of the Security and Terrorism Programme at the GRC.