| Peer-reviewed publications | |
| Books & Book chapters | |
| Comment and analysis |
| i | This is the website of Dr Emilie J. Rutledge. An academic with over a decade’s worth of experience in designing, managing and delivering economics courses at both undergraduate and post-graduate levels (see: Courses). Emilie has published over a dozen peer-reviewed papers (see: Publications) and is the author of “Monetary Union in the Gulf”. Her current research interests include the Arabian Gulf’s economic diversification and labour market reform agendas. Emilie also provides academic consultancy services — specialising in the developing of interactive university-level courses — alongside analytical and research expertise focusing on the economies of the oil-rich Arabian Gulf. About ‧ Consultancy ‧ 📚 Papers  erutledge.com  Dr Emilie J. Rutledge |
Peer-reviewed publications
Labor Markets in the Gulf and the South Asian Migration
This work considers the long-run relationship between South Asian labor and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)’s workforce composition and modes of operation. While overall the relationship has been mutually beneficial, drawbacks are apparent, a key one being the impact on indigenous human capital. South Asian labor, more than any other contingent—Arab, Western and others—enabled GCC rulers to institute a mode of ‘social contract’ which provided citizens with government jobs (sometimes sinecures), luxury lifestyles facilitated by cheap labor (within the domestic workplace and public spheres), and heavily subsidized migrant labor for their business ventures. The resultant strains—a highly overstaffed bureaucracy and little incentive for businesses to invest in labor-saving technologies—are now acutely apparent and the status quo is in need of a systemic overhaul.
Keywords:
Social contract, Demographic Dilemma, Kafala system, economic diversification, labor nationalization, labor productivity, employability
APA citation:
Rutledge, E. J. (2018). Labor Markets in the Gulf and the South Asian Migration. In M. Chowdhury & S. I. Rajan (Eds.), South Asian Migration in the Gulf: Causes and Consequences (pp. 101-122). London: Springer International Publishing. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-71821-7_6
Parental influence on female vocational intentions in the Arabian Gulf
This paper examines parental career-related behavior in relation to the vocational intentions of female nationals enrolled at higher education institutions in the Arabian Gulf revealing that parental support significantly reduces the perceived sociocultural barriers to workforce participation. The purpose of this paper is to examine parental career-related behavior (PCB) in relation to the vocational intentions of female nationals enrolled at higher education institutions in the United Arab Emirates. A conceptual framework was constructed to examine the interplay between the PCB factors of support, interference and lack of engagement, against context-relevant dimensions of gendered sociocultural barriers, public sector preferences and the likelihood itself of labor market entry. Survey data from face-to-face encounters (n=335) was collected. Parental support was found to significantly reduce the perceived sociocultural barriers to workforce participation. Parental interference amplified these barriers and also increased public sector preferences. Those with educated fathers were more likely to seek labor market entry and consider atypical career paths, while those with a parent working in the private sector were more willing to consider this sector. One limitation was a sample comprising only female students, nonetheless it implies PCB has an impact on “national” female labor force participation (FLFP). Therefore, seeking to engage parents as more active stakeholders in vocationally related HEI interventions would benefit from greater policy attention. This paper is the first to consider parental influence on FLFP using the PCB construct. Its value is in the framework model presented and its contribution to the discourse on the Arabian Gulf’s labor market dynamics.
Keywords:
Employment, Human resource management, National cultures, Women, Labour market, Arabian Gulf labour markets, Career choice intentions, Female labour force participation, Parental career-related behaviour, Vocational behaviour
APA citation:
Rutledge, E. J., & Madi, M. (2017). Parental influence on female vocational intentions in the Arabian Gulf. International Journal of Manpower, 38(2), 145–159. doi: 10.1108/IJM-08-2015-0130
Oil Rent, the Rentier State/Resource Curse Narrative and the GCC Countries
Despite the fact that ‘rent’ underpins both Rentier State (RS) and Resource Curse (RC) theses, external factors that help shape perceptions of it and determine its value, are rarely factored in. The purpose of this article is to suggest reasons for this shortcoming and, with particular reference to the ‘archetypal candidate’ Gulf Cooperation Council countries, question the utility per se of the RS/RC paradigm (RS outcomes can only manifest within RC contexts). To explain the default and long‐standing utilisation of the construct across the social sciences—in spite of the frequent need to detour around contrary data—this paper points firstly to the way in which rent is now popularly perceived (from logically grounded, to excessively unwarranted) and secondly, to the fact that ‘oil’ lies at the paradigm’s heart. It is a commodity that various Western polities once had unfettered control over; no other depletable natural resource in the past century has held such global economic significance (external actors clearly have a vested interest). Lastly, to underscore the need for a reappraisal of the RS/RC analytical framework, some data are presented that demonstrate that the GCC countries have not, comparatively speaking, suffered the deleterious consequences that the paradigm stipulates
Keywords:
Oil, Oil-rent, Rentier State, Social contract, Demographic Dilemma, Kafala system, economic diversification, labor productivity
APA citation:
Rutledge, E. J. (2017). Oil Rent, the Rentier State/Resource Curse Narrative and the GCC Countries. OPEC Energy Review, 41(2), 145–159. doi: 10.1111/opec.12098
The Impact of Labor Nationalization Policies on Female Participation Rates in the Arab Gulf
The past decade has seen a growing realization in the Arab Gulf countries, which comprise the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates [UAE]), that no longer can all new labor market entrants be absorbed into the respective public sectors, especially not the largely unproductive bureaucratic echelons. This is evidenced first by rising levels of unemployment—almost one in five nationals aged between 15 and 29 — and second, by the fact that all the countries have policies in place for nationalizing labour in the private sector. In the regional context, ‘unemployment’ can be observed in the guise of, on the one hand, an increasing number of nationals choosing to remain unemployed unless, or until, a government position is made available and on the other, a large number of unfulfilling sinecures. Such labour market strains have in fact been emergent and indeed, documented for some time, as have the associated nationalization polices designed to address them. What is largely missing from the literature is a gendered analysis of these policies. Labour nationalization combines top-down measures — including imposing quotas on certain private sector industries, taxing the importation of expatriate workers, and reserving certain job categories for nationals — and bottom-up measures — such as overhauling education systems, introducing minimum standards, and providing vocational training. While the approaches differ across the GCC, their common goal (and reason for being) is to encourage more nationals into private sector employment.
Keywords:
Labour nationalization, Arabian Gulf labour markets, human resource development, female labour force participation
APA citation:
Rutledge, E. J. & Al-Shamsi, F. (2015). The Impact of Labor Nationalization Policies on Female Participation Rates in the Arab Gulf. In M. Karshenas and N. Chamlou (Eds.), Women, Work and Welfare in the Middle East: The Role of Socio-Demographics, Entrepreneurship and Public Policies, (525–551). London: Imperial College Press. doi: 10.1142/9781783267347_0019
Securing a dynamic and open economy: the UAE’s Quest for Stability
The UAE’s international profile and stature have grown significantly in recent years. Both CNN and Rupert Murdoch’s Sky News broadcast from Abu Dhabi, and the BBC’s regional hub is located in Dubai. Two famous English Premier League football clubs, Arsenal and Manchester City, play their home games at the “Emirates” and “Etihad” stadiums, respectively. Along with the world’s tallest tower and largest shopping mall, Dubai is home to Emirates, currently the fourth-largest global airline, operating from the world’s busiest airport in terms of international passenger traffic. In 2014, Dubai won the bid to host the 2020 World Expo and, for a number of years, has convened the world’s richest horse race. The final race of the Formula One season now takes place in Abu Dhabi, and the Louvre will soon open its first satellite venue there, as will the Guggenheim Museum. Since 2007, Abu Dhabi has partnered with MIT and Siemens in the field of renewable energy at the Norman Foster-designed, carbon-neutral Masdar City. It can now be accessed via the iconic, Zaha Hadid-designed, Sheikh Zayed causeway. In 2017, the UAE will be the first in the region to generate electricity by nuclear technology as part of a multi-billion-dollar partnership with South Korea.
Keywords:
Social contract, Demographic Dilemma, Labour nationalization, Arabian Gulf labour markets, human resource development
APA citation:
Lekhraibani, R., Rutledge, E.J. and Forstenlechner, I. (2015). Securing a dynamic and open economy: the UAE’s Quest for Stability, Middle East Policy, 22(2): 108–124. doi: 10.1111/mepo.12132
GCC Currency Union: Necessary Precursors and Prospects
The purpose of this paper is to set out the steps that members of the GCC would need to take in order to effectively implement their long planned currency union. It will be argued that the preparatory measures themselves are likely to constitute some of the key economic benefits. Optimal Currency Areas (OCA) will only manifest within a single market in which labour and capital are mobile and in which banking operations and fiscal budgetary decisions are accountable, transparent, and subject to intra-regional institutional regulation and oversight. Thus, in taking steps toward a currency union (CU), participating members would first need to establish a single market and devolve, when required, some executive decision making powers in relation to monetary and macroeconomic matters. By doing so, they would create a larger and deeper market that would be considerably more attractive to domestic and foreign investors alike. However, if member states do achieve such precursors and form a “single” currency – as opposed to a “common” one which, give or take, they effectively have with their extant relationships with the US dollar – the driving force will have been political, not economic, incentives (as it was in Europe).
APA citation:
Rutledge, E. J. (2014). GCC Currency Union: Necessary Precursors and Prospects, Gulf Policy Papers, August 2014, Cambridge: Gulf Research Center
The UAE, the “Arab Spring” and Different Types of Dissent
As the second anniversary of Mohamed Bouazizi’s tragic self-sacrifice approaches, analyses of the Arab Spring’s underlying causes and longer-term implications are starting to proliferate. With respect to the six Arab Gulf countries, there are two dominant viewpoints as to why the ruling elites have thus far remained in place. First, all are monarchies based upon tribal, clan and family allegiances and thus do not currently face a crisis of legitimacy (Bahrain, for sectarian reasons, being a partial exception). Second, the social contract has thus far been capable of providing enough jobs and housing and has been malleable enough to expediently transmit a series of additional quick-fix packages since 2011. (In Oman, the protests focused on its social contract’s not being generous enough; Sultan Qaboos’s legitimacy was never questioned.)
APA citation:
Forstenlechner, I., Rutledge, E.J. and Alnuaimi, R. (2012). The UAE, the “Arab Spring” and Different Types of Dissent, Middle East International, 19(4): 54-67. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-4967.2012.00559.x
Emiratisation: determining the factors that influence the recruitment decisions of employers in the UAE
The Arab Gulf’s labour market is being overhauled. The private sector is increasingly being ‘obliged’ to more actively support nationalisation programmes. This study seeks to quantitatively determine the recruitment decisions of the employers. We collated the views of just under 250 UAE-based HRM personnel, in order to identify which factors (social, cultural, economic, regulatory, educational and motivational) are most significant as cited in the relevant literature. Not having the necessary educational qualifications and high reservation wage demands were found to have less of a bearing than does the perceived lack of vocationally orientated motivation and the ambiguities over the differing rights afforded to employees.
Keywords:
Arab Gulf labour markets; Emiratisation; labour nationalisation; UAE
APA citation:
Forstenlechner, I., Madi, M., Selim, H.M. and Rutledge, E.J. (2012). Emiratisation: determining the factors that influence the recruitment decisions of employers in the UAE, The International Journal of Human Resource Management, 23(2): 406-421. doi: 10.1080/09585192.2011.561243
Women, labour market nationalisation policies and human resource development in the Arab Gulf States
Growing levels of national unemployment constitute one of the Arab Gulf’s key domestic policy challenges and not least because the majority of new jobs will need to be created in the skilled private sector. We demonstrate that while female nationals obtain proportionately more of the vocationally orientated, tertiary level qualifications that this sector requires, structural issues and cultural attitudes continue to act as barriers. Based on the findings of interviews with policymakers in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, we contend that while incumbent labour nationalization policies have led to marginal increases in female participation rates, more systemic labour market reforms will be needed in order to better capitalize on the ‘valuable human resource asset’ that they represent.
Keywords:
labour nationalization; gender economics; education and human resource development; Gulf Cooperation Council; labour market policy
APA citation:
Rutledge, E.J., Al-Shamsi, F., Bassioni, Y. and Al-Sheikh, H. (2011). Women, labour market nationalisation policies and human resource development in the Arab Gulf States, Human Resource Development International, 14(2): 183-193. doi: 10.1080/13678868.2011.558314
The GCC’s “Demographic Imbalance”: Perceptions, Realities and Policy Options
Historically the bulk of political-economy discourse on the Arab Gulf focused on its geo-strategic importance, the actors or factors that had the capacity to disrupt the outflow of oil, the extent to which respective governments were dependent upon the “rent” derived and, finally, the manner in which this was spent (consumption vs. investment). More recently, however, in light of the region’s “national” demographic pyramid profile, a considerable amount of the focus has shifted to examining the idiosyncrasies of its labour markets: the “emerging strains” and growing levels of “structural employment” resulting from an over-dependence on an expatriate workforce and the government job-provision mechanism (for citizens) that lies at the heart of the social contract. Related works consider the relative educational levels and vocational aptitudes of the national versus non-national workforce, the influence of sociocultural factors on occupational choices, and the merits of labour nationalization policies in principle and in practice.
Keywords:
Social Contract, Labour nationalization, Arabian Gulf labour markets, human resource development
APA citation:
Forstenlechner, I. and Rutledge, E.J. (2011). The GCC’s “Demographic Imbalance”: Perceptions, Realities and Policy Options, Middle East Policy, 18(4): 25-43. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-4967.2011.00508.x
Growing Levels of National Unemployment in the Arab Gulf: Time to Update the ‘Social Contract’
The growing level of national unemployment in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries remains one of the region’s key domestic policy challenges. This is clear, even if one does not share the hyperbolic depiction of it as an “impending time bomb” that could culminate in “armed insurrection.” In order to provide adequate (and productive) employment opportunities for all nationals, not only is a major overhaul of educational systems required; there also needs to be a renewed focus on policies designed to facilitate economic diversification that generates the sorts of jobs nationals consider appropriate. Moreover, the region’s ruling elites need to modify and then re-communicate their respective social contracts (“ruling bargains”). These, in many senses, lie at the heart of the issue.
APA citation:
Forstenlechner, I. and Rutledge, E.J. (2010). Growing Levels of National Unemployment in the Arab Gulf: Time to Update the ‘Social Contract’, Middle East Policy, 17(2): 38-51. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-4967.2010.00437.x
Is EMU a Viable Model for Monetary Integration in the Arabian Gulf?
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) intends to form a monetary union using the EMU process as a blueprint, including a set of Maastricht-style convergence criteria. Yet, as the 2010 deadline approaches, few of the necessary institutional preparations have been made. This paper argues that while GCC leaders considered the economic case (on the whole beneficial) they neglected to fully consider the political implications of monetary union. It concludes that devolving decision-making powers to pan-GCC institutions, the need for greater levels of budgetary transparency and fiscal discipline may presently be considered too costly for the region’s ruling elites.
Keywords:
monetary union; economic integration; economic policy objectives; Gulf Cooperation Council states; comparative studies
JEL Classification:
E52, F15, E61, O53, O57
APA citation:
Rutledge, E. J. (2008). Is EMU a Viable Model for Monetary Integration in the Arabian Gulf? Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 11(2): 123-134. doi: 10.1080/17487870802213878
Business Expectations for a Common Currency in the Arabian Gulf
This paper presents the results of the first survey designed to ascertain the opinions of businesses regarding the proposed Gulf Cooperation Council Monetary Union (GCC MU). Overall, businesses are in favour of the project and expect it to have a positive impact, but they consider non-monetary factors to be more significant to their future growth. Nevertheless, businesses are not prepared for the single currency. Regional institutions have yet to provide any business-centric information regarding a common GCC currency. The paper contends that if participating governments do not start making policy preparations soon – not the least assisting businesses to prepare – then the existing positive sentiment may erode.
Keywords:
Labour nationalization, Arabian Gulf labour markets, human resource development, female labour force participation
APA citation:
Rutledge, E. J. (2008). Business Expectations for a Common Currency in the Arabian Gulf, Journal of Development and Economic Policies, 10(1): 37-55
Oil and Gas Markets in the UK: Evidence From a Cointegrating Approach
The paper examines the relationship between UK wholesale gas prices and the Brent oil price over the period 1996-2003 in order to investigate whether oil and gas prices ‘decoupled’ during this period as orthodox gas market liberalisation theory suggests. Tests for unit roots and cointegration are carried out and it is discovered that a long-run equilibrium relationship between UK gas and oil prices exists. Moreover, this relationship pre-dates the opening of the UK-Mainland Europe Interconnector. Following a recursive methodology [Hansen, H. and Johansen, S. (1999), Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models, Econometrics Journal, 2, 306-333.], it was found that the cointegrating relationship is present throughout the sample period. However, the long-run solutions seem to be more volatile. Evidence is provided that the short-run relationship is linear and impulse response functions are used to examine the effects that a shock in oil would have on gas. These findings do not support the assumption that gas prices and oil prices ‘decouple’.
Keywords:
Oil price; Gas price; Cointegration; Nonparametric cointegration; Recursive trace test; Error correction; Impulse response
JEL Classification:
C22; C52; O13; Q43
APA citation:
Panagiotidis, T., & Rutledge, E. J. (2007). Oil and gas markets in the UK: Evidence from a cointegrating approach. Energy Economics, 29(2), 329-347. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2006.10.013
Books & Book chapters
Monetary Union in the Gulf
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South Asian Migration in the Gulf: Causes and Consequences
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Women, Work and Welfare in the Middle East
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GCC Monetary Union: A Cost–Benefit AnalysisExtract: APA citation:
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Establishing a Successful GCC Currency UnionExtract: APA citation: |
Comment and analysis
| Giving private sector jobs the required significance Rutledge, E. J. (2018, May 10). Gulf News. |
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| Time to rethink dollar peg Rutledge, E. J. (2009, May 9). Gulf News. |
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| Your Dinar is in the oven Rutledge, E. J. (2007, November 2). Gulf News. |
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| Single currency at a crossroads Rutledge, E. J. (2007, May 26). Gulf News. |
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| An inconvenient truth Rutledge, E. J. (2007, May 5). Gulf News. |
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| Gulf monetary union is a cracking project? Rutledge, E. J. (2006, December 16). Gulf News. |